Aleria's Adventures

We took the sails and ropes down to Aleria in Kilrush today. Alex got most of the ropes rigged but two halyards refused to go over the sheaves. We got the sails onboard with effort. They get heavier every year.  It was a beautiful day and we were surprised how many boats were still on the hard. For once I took pictures of Steve's boat not ours. A beauty.  We both struggled with age. Knees, sciatica, numb limbs. Just can't do this well anymore. 

  A transition from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter. El Niño is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter. The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon. While at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) includes an 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño to a ~55% chance of a strong El Niño. It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Niño fails to materialize (5-10% chance). In summary, a transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter. This discussion is a ...

There is a temperature anomaly over Canada and extending into the Arctic. Temperature anomaly map for the Arctic region for the next 5 days: GFS model guidance. Plenty warm over northern Greenland with temperatures up to ~20 °C higher than the 1979-2000 average! Above average everywhere except N Canada. Map: Climatereanalyzer Very warm, above-average temperatures are occurring over much of Canada today and it's likely to persist for more than a week! #weather #climate  It promted avalanche warnings for the western mountain regions. “The effect of the warm temperatures on the existing snowpack structure means that these avalanches will likely be very large and may run to valley bottoms,” Avalanche Canada said in the warning.