Climate change and sailing
Is this the tipping point? The problem with models used to predict future events lies in the fact that “probabilities” are simply the odds that extreme events of a certain size will occur in the future, mostly calculated based on past occurrences. But as climate changes, the models become less accurate and less useful in predicting future probabilities. As I watched the explosive cyclogenesis that made Tropical Storm Otis intensify into a Category 5 hurricane in 12 hours as it crossed a warm blob of water off the coast of Acapulco, I came to understand that there is no way to get out of such a storm's path. Acapulco was destroyed -- it looks like it was bombed out of existence. Not one of the models came close to predicting this development. I believe that climate change will have a negative impact on distance cruising, and sailing in general. Many of the yacht captains who were told to stay onboard vessels at anchor to guard them have not been heard from since. Authorities hav