Aleria's Adventures

Is this the tipping point? The problem with models used to predict future events lies in the fact that “probabilities” are simply the odds that extreme events of a certain size will occur in the future, mostly calculated based on past occurrences. But as climate changes, the models become less accurate and less useful in predicting future probabilities.  As I watched the explosive cyclogenesis that made Tropical Storm Otis intensify into a Category 5 hurricane in 12 hours as it crossed a warm blob of water off the coast of Acapulco, I came to understand that there is no way to get out of such a storm's path. Acapulco was destroyed -- it looks like it was bombed out of existence. Not one of the models came close to predicting this development.  I believe that climate change will have a negative impact on distance cruising, and sailing in general. Many of the yacht captains who were told to stay onboard vessels at anchor to guard them have not been heard from since. Autho...

Cyclone Fani approaching India May 3, 2019. I'm reading Mary Robinson's book Climate Justice and thinking about the awful cyclones that have hit Mozambique and India. Cyclone Kenneth struck while Mozambique was still struggling to deal with the impact of Cyclone Idai. In India today, a million people were evacuated from coastal areas, and 2.5 million were being evacuated from Bangladesh. Fani is the first tropical cyclone of the year in the northern Indian Ocean, and the most powerful to occur there since the cyclone of 1991 in which at least 10,000 people died, hence the emphasis on evacuation. It is also the strongest to occur so early in the season. A lot of people live along the vulnerable coast.

The last few weeks were extraordinary for storms around the world. It's a strange conundrum that although weather forecasting is getting better, the weather overall is getting worse - more extreme and less stable.

Ice receding in the Arctic regions Yesterday I wrote about sea levels rising faster than predicted. Today, I'm going to summarize the latest in climate change anomalies . Scientists have recorded a warm air intrusion through the central Arctic this winter. In the area north of 80 degrees latitude, average temperatures were 36 degrees above normal. Whereas there were only four such intrusions between 1980 and 2010, there have been four occurrences in the past five years.

A new study by NASA's Sea Level Change team published February 12 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences has shown that sea levels are rising at accelerating rates rather than a steady increase as previously thought. That means that by 2100, the levels will be twice as high as previously predicted, causing serious problems for many coastal cities. If the rate of ice melt continues at this pace, sea levels will rise 26 inches (65 centimeters) by 2100. That's a lot more than shown in the graphic above.

Hurricane Ophelia south of the Azores and heading to Ireland As sailors, we are acutely attuned to wind, waves, and weather patterns. Our lives depend on it. As long-term sailors, we've been noticing the acceleration of changes in those patterns. I wrote about it first many years ago when sailing on Long Island Sound. I wrote about it again in 2011  after several crossings of the Atlantic.

Summer is coming to the rest of the world. For years, I've been feeling dread and doom for humanity. I've often shared with Alex that I feel that the end is coming for the world as we know it. There are too many people and not enough resources. It's a scenario heading for disaster of biblical proportions for the human species. I have read Lovelock and I subscribe to the Gaia Hypothesis that the earth is a single organism in which each species is inextricably linked and controlled to ensure the survival of the whole.