Hurricane Otis - no warning!

- October 25, 2023

Super warm water blobs off Mexico's coast

A few days ago, I wrote a story for the OCC website based on a scientific study that concluded that with warmer oceans serving as fuel, Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely as before to rapidly intensify from minor hurricanes to powerful and catastrophic storms. Little did I know that just five days later, Hurricane Otis would destroy Acapulco.

The study published last week examined 830 Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1971. It found that in the last 20 years, 8.1% of the time storms powered from a Category 1 minor storm to a major hurricane in just 24 hours. That happened only 3.2% of the time from 1971 to 1990, according to a study in the journal Scientific Reports.

When storms rapidly intensify, it makes it difficult for people in the storm’s path to decide what they should do — get out of the way or hunker down.

Hurricane Otis grew from a tropical storm yesterday morning in the eastern Pacific to a Category 5 hurricane by the end of the day.

It’s the fastest-strengthening storm on record in the region, and the fastest observed in the satellite era. This morning Otis made landfall near Acapulco, a city of about 1 million people. It’s expected to cause catastrophic damage.

Otis took full advantage of a warm patch of ocean last night... passing over 31°C water on its approach to Acapulco. The extremely rapid intensification from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane took place over a tiny area as seen in the image above.

Otis, which intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in under 12 hours, made landfall near Acapulco, Mexico early this morning. The storm started off as a 50 mph tropical storm yesterday and explosively intensified into a Category 5 monster with 165 mph winds. Forecasters said it had “explosively intensified” by 110 miles per hour in 24 hours, far surpassing the standard definition of rapid intensification, which is when a storm grows by 35 mph in 24 hours.

Just 24 hours prior, it was a tropical storm and was forecast to make landfall as a tropical storm. People did not even get a hurricane warning a day in advance. Computer models didn't even hint at this, a direct, Cat 5 hit on Acapulco, a city of 1 million people. Global models, in particular, failed spectacularly.

Some of the images being released from the wrath of Otis in Acapulco, Guerrero show heavy structural damage, blasted trees and demolished buildings. Heavy storm surge accompanied the wind.

Otis is now moving farther inland. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding continue over portions of southern Mexico. Communication is down in the Mexican city of Acapulco, as is the region's seismic activity warning system.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1717134580291887571

There are reports that the Acapulco Marina and docks have been destroyed. Boats piled on top of one another by Hurricane Otis. At its highest point, the shoreline sits just above 25 feet with its lowest point at 3.5 feet. Storm Surge has nowhere to go as the city is also surrounded by a mountain wall to its back. Flooding has inundated the city and lower-lying areas, including Hotels and Hospitals.

At least 29 boats are known to have sunk in Acapulco Bay during the hurricane. Some apparently had crew onboard who were told to secure the yachts when Otis was announced as a tropical storm.