Atlantic cyclones appear again

After a couple of weeks of benign weather in the Atlantic, we now have TS Gamma and three other disturbances that may still develop.  

What a season it has been. TS Arthur formed off North Carolina on the 16th of May. Arthur’s formation prior to the official start of the hurricane season marked the sixth consecutive year of at least one named storm forming prior to 1 June. TS Bertha was a short-lived storm on 27-28 May.  I wonder if that's a first -- that two named storms form before the official season. The genesis of Tropical Storm Bertha was not well anticipated and so South Carolina didn't get much warning. 

The season got off to such an early and active start that NOAA issued an update to the hurricane season forecast in August. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season with a record-setting nine named storms prior to August has the potential to be one of the busiest on record. "Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5)."

This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks. The updated outlook called for 19-25 named storms (winds of >39 mph), of which 7-11 would become hurricanes (winds >74 mph), including 3-6 major hurricanes (winds of >111 mph).

When TS Wilfred formed on Sept 18, The NWS had run out of names and by convention had to resort to the Greek alphabet. As the cyclone season doesn't officially end until December 1, we have potentially a lot of Greek letters to go through before then. Only once has the Greek alphabet been invoked -- in 2005, the year of Katrina, Rita and Wilma. They got as far as Zeta that year. 

Meanwhile, Storm Alex is wreaking havoc in Europe. Formed in the Bay of Biscay, the first named storm for the French Met office, parts of England and Scotland are experiencing heavy flooding.  France and Italy are getting the worst of it, with at least 2 dead and 20 missing as houses were swept out to sea and rivers experienced historic flooding after almost 18 inches of rain, the equivalent of almost 4 months' precipitation, was dumped in 24 hours. And winds of 180 kph expected. 

The Alps were particularly badly hit as bridges collapsed, roads washed away, villages were cut off, and valleys were inundated. In Piedmont, 630mm of rain had fallen in 24 hours, an amount "unheard of since 1954.  

Somehow, we were spared the worst of it with 25 to 40mm of rain forecast and it is not a named storm for us. Our first will be called Aiden. Alex brought heavy rain and gale-force winds to the north and east, but we're doing pretty well.